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Image from studentbrand.com

For the second time this semester my wife’s has been tasked with the challenge of getting people to click on a link (ex: http://tinyurl.com/nyumarkconf) as part of a contest for her brand strategy class.  Her professor, Scott Galloway, is a Clinical Associate Professor of Marketing for NYU.  He founded Red Envelope and Firebrand Partners so he has proven himself to be very successful in creating brands and is obviously very knowledgeable about marketing.  My wife even tells me he has a reputation for no nonsense (read his email to a student that became a viral sensation) and his lectures often draw visitors who aren’t enrolled in the MBA programs.

Still, I can’t help but wish my wife’s assignment would be more challenging than to get someone to click URLs about marketing and innovation conferences they probably could care less about.  Sure, it takes some acumen and a bit of ingenuity to get a large number of people to click on a URL, but I’d argue that this is more akin to spamming not branding.  If one were technically inclined he could even mask proxy requests to the URL, but this would likely be better reserved for a class in computer science.  Now I confess I do not know much about branding myself, but I would have expected that a branding exercise would at the very least:

• Convey some sort of message
• Make some sort of connection (emotional, intellectual, spiritual, etc.)
• Create some loyal following

I fail to see how getting others to click on a tracking URL accomplishes this.  Now perhaps I’m a bit biased because of my background in tech, but I wish these MBA students learned more technological skills and created some brand strategy utilizing a combination of social media, web services and open source software.

For example, why not teach the students how to implement a CRM strategy using something like SugarCRM?  The students could be given the challenge to write about some particular subjects they are passionate about using something like blogger from Google.  They could then setup an AdSense account to see if they may even monetize web traffic and generate a little income.  They may even purchase keywords on AdWords to drive traffic to their blog.  Using Twitter, they can cultivate a following and direct people to complete lead forms into SugarCRM.  With these leads in hand, they can create targeted email campaigns to keep their users informed about their blog and even track activities with such followers.  I believe that such a broad exercise utilizing various technologies will better equip the students with experience in branding and give them more technical skills.

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Not too much commentary on the markets.  $FEED and $ONP have been a disappointment.  I’d say raise some cash where possible.  Don’t buy short ETFs; instead buy gold via $GLD.

This post was done via WordPress for Android phones.  =)

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Disclosure: Long ONP at $4.42.  Remember I have to hold for 30 days too.  This is not an endorsement for you to purchase ONP.  Please know that risks are inherent in investing in Chinese small cap stocks.

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Image from www.simpsontrivia.com

Tonight I read that Matt Garza pitched the 5th no-hitter of the 2010 season.  The way the 2010 season started it seemed as if we were on pace to see the total number of no-hitters games fall outside the three-sigma rule of statistics.  My initial suspicion was that something had changed about the baseball that was giving pitchers an edge.

I mention the character of Fat Tony in my blog title because it refers to a fictional character Nassim Taleb refers to in his book, “The Black Swan”.  Fat Tony is basically your typical street smart, mafia guy who does not know a lot of math, but can easily spot a rigged game unfolding.   So I wanted to see if we could say that the occurrences of no-hitters being thrown in 2010 was simply a fluke or perhaps is there something about the baseball, scouting technology, etc. that is giving pitchers an edge? Here are some numbers to consider:

Total no-hitters (recognized by MLB) to date from 1875-2010: 268

Total games played during this period: 196688

Chance of no-hitter being thrown per game = 268 / 196,688 = .0014 or .14%

So using this .14% average, I wanted to see how many no-hitters would be expected in the 2010 season

Total teams in MLB 2010: 30

Total games played per team 2010: 162

Total statistical games for 2010: 30 x 162 = 4860

Total expected games played for 2010 = 4860 /2 = 2430

Expected no-hitters for 2010 = .0014 * 2430 = 3.31103067

So already we are 2 games over the expected number based on the historical average.  But what about calculating the standard deviation?  So here again, I got a little lazy as I did not want to calculate the total games played each year, the no-hitters thrown that given year and then find the standard deviation across this data set.  Instead I just took the last 19 years of data and included the projected no-hitters thrown this season based on the current trend to run some calculations.

The projected value of 8 for 2010 is arrived by calculating the total games currently played in 2010 as of the time of this article (1477) and then using the ratio to a full season (2430).  Or 5 / (1477 / 2430) = 8.23.

Now already there were other problems that cropped up.  One thing was the strike shortened 1994 season where MLB effectively canceled all games on August 12, 1994.  Also, should some revision have been made to the number of no-hitters during the peak of the steriod-era (note that there were only 9 no-hitters thrown from 1999-2006)?  Finally, what to do with the postseason games?  The total number of games played there also need to be factored in.  In the end, I decided not to make an adjustments for these three items.  So using the data I found the average during the past 20 year period was 2.38 no-hitters per season.  The standard deviation is 2.16.

Alas, it would appear that Fat Tony has not rigged the baseballs.  Even though we are currently on pace to see an all-time high (excluding data from the 1800s) for no-hitters thrown in a season, we are still within 3 standard deviations as 2.38 + (3 * 2.16) > 8.

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Image from bigsislilsis.com

Okay so by now you have probably already felt first hand this seemingly unrelenting hot weather.  Studies indicate that last month was the hottest June recorded.  So are there trades to take advantage of this hot weather?

What about beverages?  You get thirsty in the heat don’t ya?

Certainly beverages come to mind; especially beer (even though one shouldn’t be consuming alcohol during periods of severe heat).  But Budweiser [BUD], Boston Beer Company (maker of Sam Adams) [SAM] and the similar breweries have already made new 52-week highs or are hovering close there so while there may be a little more upside there, I’d like to look elsewhere instead.

Darn, well okay… hmmm if it’s hot what do you do?  Why, of course, you turn on the AC!

So what’s the air conditioner trade?  I thought about going to the core of the Air Conditioner unit… perhaps a company that manufacturers Freon?  Okay, so actually it turns out Freon is DuPont’s [DD] brand name for CFCs, the organic compound used by many AC units .  Unfortunately, this article is now a month late (sorry I have been busy) and Dupont’s stock has also risen to near 52-week highs.

Well then what about the people who sell those AC units?

Ah okay, so Home Depot [HD] has potential.  There’s the AC demand story, but there’s also all the loan modifications/loan extensions taking place for distressed borrowers that is helping homeowners avert foreclosure and stay in their homes.  Whether or not you agree with the assistance is another subject for debate and the opinions on both sides have been strong no doubt.   Perhaps another article for that…  In the meantime, Home Depot is set to announce earnings on August 16th and if AC sales have been unusually high these past few weeks then I think Home Depot will deliver a strong number.  Also because of the aforementioned assistance to distressed borrowers, those staying in their homes now have more money in their pockets and can afford to take on home improvement projects.  This also bodes well for Home Depot.  The stock is trading at $28 right now so it’s only $4 above the 52-week low price of $24.47.

Finally, if you’re like me and you’re at home in this heat you probably find yourself wearing less clothing.  Is there a trade for that?

Hanesbrands Inc. [HBI] is a stock that comes to mind as they are one of the largest manufacturers of underwear.  I got this idea after reading an article about odorless underwear sales surging in Japan.  If it’s hot and humid you’re probably showering more frequently and walking around your house in your briefs more often (just admit it, you do).   This means that you have to probably replace some of those boxers which have holes in them or just get more underwear because you’re changing so much more frequently.  Based on their positive earnings results announced today, I’d say Hanesbrands has further room to run in the next few weeks as the temperatures continue to sizzle.  Finally, Fast Retailing, the parent company of Uniqlo was mentioned in the article about the odorless underwear.  I wrote about Fast Retailing awhile back.  They recently had to pare back some of their forecasts, but longer term, I still think Fast Retailing is a company that is still experiencing rapid growth.

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- Jack Kirk (a.k.a. Dispea Demon)

I stumbled upon Christopher McDougall’s “Born To Run” by chance at the library last week.  When I got around to reading it I found myself hooked and wound up finishing the book in three days.  This is an excellent book that reads like a combination of an adventure, science, philosophy and biography on ultramarathon runners and the Tarahumara Indians.  I became fascinated with some of the characters and events mentioned and wound up doing additional research as well as over the internet so as to put a picture to a name.  The mention of the Divine Madness running cult was also very interesting and led me to Google around for articles related to that.

One of the themes in the book is this sort of Zen-like approach to life these ultramarathon runners have.  The title of the book indicates that running allows us to realize how human beings (Homo sapiens) were engineered to be efficient runners.  McDougall spends some time discussing the benefits of running without the fancy shoes and all their advanced microchips, springs and air pockets that companies like Nike promote.  In fact, the case could be made that these very shoes are the cause for the injuries many runners are afflicted with.  The reader also gets a sense of how these incredible athletes, despite having the chutzpah to run 100 miles in the desert, have a meditative outlook of life and are dedicated towards training their bodies solely for the pure bliss that may be captured when enjoying those special moments of simple joy when running.  Some reject materialism and turn down commercial sponsorships.   The Tarahumara Indians with their spartan lifestyle would be the epitome of the runners who grasp the birthright of running.  If you’re considering training for a marathon or are already an avid runner, I would highly recommend this book.

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